Vail and Rita Ranch in 2026: Inside Tucson's Fastest-Growing Southeast Submarket

Vail is the southeast Tucson submarket that has been growing the fastest, the longest, and the most quietly. The Vail census-designated place population is approximately 16,994 in 2026, up roughly 20.5 percent from the 2020 census, and the broader 85641 ZIP code sits in the low 30,000s. Sales activity in Vail was up 13 percent year over year while most of the Tucson metro stayed flat, a 158,000-square-foot Costco has been filed at 9688 E. Old Vail Road on the 22.35-acre Rita Ranch Commerce Center site, and a Larsen Baker–marketed Sprouts-anchored center is taking shape on the southwest corner of Houghton and Old Vail. Add the A-rated Vail School District, Cienega High School, Saguaro National Park East, Colossal Cave Mountain Park, and Cienega Creek Natural Preserve, and you have one of the most distinctive submarkets in southern Arizona. Here is a fully sourced look at where the area stands and what is on the calendar over the coming year.